In dynasty leagues, I’ve long advocated a strategy of stockpiling firsts but not executing most of them; instead, use them to acquire future firsts at a discount and run your team on the profit. On Twitter, I made an offhand mention that I’d been running a version of this strategy for seven years now, and someone asked me what that looked like in practice, so here it is.
A few caveats before we begin:
- As with anything, it’s nice and clean in theory but sometimes messy in practice. As you will see, it’s more of a general aim than a hard-and-fast rule.
- Our rookie draft is right before the season starts, so even trades in August are generally “pre-draft”.
- This particular league has 10 teams, and awards an “extra” first rounder (pick 1.11) to the winner of the loser’s bracket, so 11 picks per year, (though only 10 are tradeable in advance).
- The league is 10 teams, yardage-heavy, and non-PPR, all of which makes it more QB-heavy and RB-heavy than your typical league. It also awards points for punt return yards, which makes it more Antonio Brown-heavy. If some of these trades look crazy, this is probably a part of it.
- But most of it is that trades that look fair at the time usually look stupid in hindsight as we forget the original context. Since defending myself or my leaguemates is not the point here, I’m not bothering with context. This is just a list of the trades as they happened.
Anyway, legal disclaimers out of the way, my streak of “owning the first round” began in 2011 (by chance; the strategy wasn’t formalized for another couple years), so here’s every trade I made involving first round rookie picks starting with the 2011 draft. For convention, picks that weren’t set at the time will be listed as “20__ pick” with the eventual pick filled in, while picks that were known at the time will be listed as “pick 1.__ in the 20__ draft”, (again with the eventual pick filled in).
Oh yeah, one last thing. Trades marked with three asterisks are the fun deals where I’m trading an owner’s own picks back to him later on down the line. Trades with three tildes were executed while on the clock.
The Trades
11/23/10
Give: LaDainian Tomlinson, Brandon Jackson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Dustin Keller
Get: DeAngelo Williams, Greg Olsen, Stevie Johnson, 2011 1st (1.09 – Randall Cobb)
02/01/11
Give: James Jones
Get: Pick 1.07 in the 2011 draft (Greg Little)
09/09/11
Give: Ben Tate, Lee Evans, Stevie Johnson
Get: 2012 1st (1.07 – later traded, used for David Wilson), 2013 1st (1.08 – Le’Veon Bell)
9/18/11
Give: A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Little, James Starks, 2012 2nd, 2013 2nd
Get: Maurice Jones-Drew, Donald Brown, Chaz Schilens, 2012 1st (1.05 – later traded, used for Justin Blackmon)
***08/12/12
Give: Pick 1.05 in 2012 (used on Justin Blackmon)
Get: Pick 1.10 in 2012 (later traded, used for Alfred Morris), 2013 1st (1.09 – later traded, used for Kenbrell Thompkins), picks 2.04 / 2.05 / 3.05 in 2012
08/12/12
Give: pick 1.10 in 2012 (used on Alfred Morris), pick 1.11 in 2012 (used on Andre Roberts), Jermichael Finley
Get: Jamaal Charles, 2013 1st round pick (1.03 – later traded, used for E.J. Manuel), pick 2.10 in 2012.
~~~08/25/12
Give: Pick 1.07 in 2012 (used on David Wilson), pick 2.04 in 2012
Get: Brandon Marshall
***09/26/12
Give: RGIII, 2013 1st (1.09, later used for Kenbrell Thompkins)
Get: Matthew Stafford, 2014 1st (1.03 – Mike Evans), 2014 1st (1.05 – later traded, used for Carlos Hyde), 2014 1st (1.06 – later traded, used for Devonta Freeman)
10/04/12
Give: Brandon Marshall, Bryce Brown, 2013 1st (1.10, used on Cordarrelle Patterson)
Get: Percy Harvin, San Francisco D/ST
11/01/12
Give: Josh Freeman, Jonathan Dwyer, 2013 1st (1.03, used on E.J. Manuel)
Get: Adrian Peterson, Nick Foles
(No trades for firsts during the 2013 season because I’d already gotten three extras in 2012)
***05/29/14
Give: Demaryius Thomas, Toby Gerhart, pick 1.05 in 2014 (used for Carlos Hyde), pick 1.06 in 2014 (used for Devonta Freeman), 2015 2nd
Get: Calvin Johnson, 2015 1st (1.02 – later traded, used for Amari Cooper)
06/05/14
Give: Le’Veon Bell, Randall Cobb, Julius Thomas, Marvin Jones, pick 1.10 in 2014 (used for Terrence West)
Get: Keenan Allen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Michael Floyd, Ladarius Green, St. Louis Defense, 2015 1st (1.08 – later traded, used for Kevin White)
08/24/14
Give: Colin Kaepernick
Get: 2015 1st (1.01 – later traded, used for Todd Gurley)
***03/29/15
Give: Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson, pick 1.08 in 2015 (Kevin White)
Get: Le’Veon Bell, T.Y. Hilton
05/08/15
Give: Ben Roethlisberger, T.Y. Hilson, pick 1.02 in 2015 (Amari Cooper)
Get: Antonio Brown, Jerick McKinnon
~~~09/01/15
Give: Julio Jones, Drew Brees, pick 1.01 in 2015 (Todd Gurley), 2016 1st (1.09, used on Devontae Booker)
Get: Andrew Luck, DeAndre Hopkins
09/01/15
Give: Frank Gore
Get: 2016 1st (1.06, later traded, used for Josh Doctson)
~~~09/02/15
Give: Jerick McKinnon, Jordan Reed, pick 1.09 in 2015 (Nelson Agholor)
Get: 2016 1st (1.05, later traded, used for Derrick Henry), 2016 1st (1.08, later traded, used for Michael Thomas), 2016 3rd
08/09/16
Give: Andrew Luck, Mike Evans, pick 1.08 in 2016 (Michael Thomas)
Get: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, C.J. Anderson, pick 1.02 in 2016 (Corey Coleman), 2017 1st (1.06 – John Ross)
~~~08/29/16
Give: Pick 1.05 in 2016 (Derrick Henry), pick 2.06 in 2015
Get: Demaryius Thomas
~~~08/29/16
Give: Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, pick 1.06 in 2016 (Josh Doctson)
Get: Allen Robinson, 2017 1st (1.07 – Mike Williams)
08/28/17
Give: Mitch Trubisky, pick 3.09 in 2017, 2018 2nd
Get: 2018 1st (1.09 – later traded, used for Ronald Jones II), 2018 3rd
08/30/17
Give: 2018 1st (1.09 – later traded, used for Ronald Jones II)
Get: Marcus Mariota
9/28/17
Give: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, Broncos Def, 2018 2nd
Get: Michael Thomas, 2018 1st (1.04 – Derrius Guice)
08/22/18
Give: Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown
Get: pick 1.01 in 2018 (Saquon Barkley), pick 1.02 in 2018 (Rashaad Penny), pick 1.09 in 2018 (Ronald Jones II), 2019 1st
9/25/18
Give: Carson Wentz, DeAndre Hopkins, 2019 2nd
Get: Pat Mahomes, JuJu Smith-Schuster, 2019 1st
Finally, here’s all the picks I got my grubby little hands on, how I got them, and what I did with them.
The Drafts
2011:
1.03 – earned – A.J. Green
1.07 – acquired – Greg Little
1.09 – acquired – Randall Cobb
Final haul: Green / Little / Cobb
2012
1.04 – earned – Robert Griffin III
1.05 – acquired – traded away for 1.10 and a future 1st
1.07 – acquired – traded away for Brandon Marshall
1.10 – acquired – traded away with 1.11 for Jamaal Charles and a future 1st
1.11 – earned – traded away with 1.10 for Jamaal Charles and a future 1st
Final haul: RGIII, Brandon Marshall, Jamaal Charles, two 2013 firsts (1.03 / 1.09)
2013
1.03 – acquired – traded for Adrian Peterson in 2012
1.08 – acquired – Le’Veon Bell
1.09 – acquired – packaged with RG3 for Stafford and three 2014 firsts
1.10 – earned – packaged with Brandon Marshall for Percy Harvin and San Francisco Def
Final haul: Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, three 2014 1sts (1.03 / 1.05 / 1.06)
2014
1.03 – acquired – Mike Evans
1.05 – acquired – traded with Demaryius Thomas and 1.06 for Calvin Johnson and a 2015 1st
1.06 – acquired – traded with Demaryius Thomas and 1.05 for Calvin Johnson and a 2015 1st
1.10 – earned – traded in blockbuster too big to recount.
Final haul: Mike Evans, 2015 1st (1.08)
2015
1.01 – acquired – traded in package for Andrew Luck
1.02 – acquired – traded in package for Antonio Brown
1.08 – acquired – traded in package for Le’Veon Bell
1.09 – earned – traded with Jordan Reed for two 2016 1sts
Final haul: Andrew Luck, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, two 2016 1sts (1.05 / 1.06)
2016
1.02 – acquired – Corey Coleman
1.05 – acquired – traded for Demaryius Thomas
1.06 – acquired – traded with Demaryius and Randall Cobb for Allen Robinson and 2017 1st
1.08 – acquired – traded in blockbuster too big to recount
1.09 – earned – traded in package for Andrew Luck
Final haul: Corey Coleman, Allen Robinson, 2017 1st (1.07)
2017
1.06 – acquired – John Ross
1.07 – acquired – Mike Williams
1.09 – earned – O.J. Howard
2018
1.01 – acquired – Saquon Barkley
1.02 – acquired – Rashaad Penny
1.04 – acquired – Derrius Guice
1.08 – earned – D.J. Moore
1.09 – acquired (twice) – traded for Marcus Mariota, re-acquired, used on Ronald Jones II
2019
currently own 3 picks in the first round
Takeaways
- Though I had a lot of picks in 2011, obviously “roll those picks forward into future years” didn’t begin as a strategy until 2012. From 2012 to 2016, I had my hands on 22 different first round picks at one point or another, but I only executed four of them. This is an average ratio of 4.4 picks owned to 0.8 players drafted. (Note: this includes a lot of double-counting, as trading one pick for another counts as “owning” two, even though I only had one at a time.)
- A lot of trading for future firsts is gambling. I’ll often target teams whose owners think they are pretty solid and hope that they fall apart. This usually results in a lot of meh 1sts in the 1.05-1.08 range. It also very rarely results in trading Colin Kaepernick for the 1.01.
- If you were paying attention, you might have noticed that after “earning” the 1.03 and 1.04 in the first two seasons, my “earned” pick was 1.09 or 1.10 for five straight years. Obviously my team has been successful. I like to think my “roll picks forward” strategy has been a big part of that, but I’ve been extremely lucky with the picks I’ve kept, too. It’s really hard to disentangle causation.
- You might look at some of these trades and say “your leaguemates are idiots”. You might look at some of them and say “you’re an idiot”. The trades where I’m getting wrecked and the trades where I’m doing the wrecking are all happening against the same two owners. Like I said, the nature of trading is that a lot of it is going to look really damn stupid in hindsight.
- Leagues adapt, and strategies must adapt, too. As years go on I find more and more competition for acquiring future picks, and I feel there is less and less profit to be made. You might have noticed that I’ve shifted gears twice already. From 2012 to 2014 I tended to trade firsts for future firsts. From 2015-2016 I tended to trade 1sts for vets. And from 2017-2018 I’ve tended to just hold and exercise all those firsts. I’ll probably shift gears again in the future to try to stay ahead of an evolving market. At some point, my streak of “owning the first” will come to an end. (Although with three picks already in the 2019 draft, probably not until 2020 at the earliest.)
