A link to all of my writing, collected in one place.
Bolded are Author’s Favorites
First, here’s a thing I wrote about Depression
Fantasy Football, in Theory Podcast:
07/17/17 Ep04: Being Right
08/13/17 Ep05: Some Names Stymie Analysis, (featuring Matt Harmon)
Interruptisodes:
(All episodes also available on iTunes and Stitcher)
Dynasty, In Theory:
09/02/14 DiT1: Musings on Confirmation Bias
09/09/14 DiT2: Thinking Like a Bayesian
09/16/14 DiT3: A Paean to Uncommon Sense
09/24/14 DiT4: The Road Not Taken
10/02/14 DiT5: Hyperbolic Discounting
10/09/14 DiT6: Skill, Luck, and Other Musings
10/16/14 DiT7: A Taxonomy of Belief
10/23/14 DiT8: Living and Dying by the Trade
11/01/14 DiT9: The Undiscovered Country
11/07/14 DiT10: A Raft of Knowledge in an Ocean of Belief
11/14/14 DiT11: Throwing a Lifeline to the Trade Deadline
11/22/14 DiT12: Gaining Expertise
11/29/14 DiT13: I Don’t Think You’re Ready (For This Jelly)
12/05/14 DiT14: The Whys and Wherefores of Tanking
12/13/14 DiT15: The Collusion Delusion
12/20/14 DiT16: Wishing You Success
12/27/14 DiT17: Creeping Determinism
08/02/15 DiT18: Is PPR Scoring Suitable for Dynasty?
09/08/15 DiT19: The Difference Between Rebuilding and Contending
09/18/15 DiT20: So Money, (and They Don’t Even Know It)
09/26/15 DiT21: Winning the Informational Arms Race
10/03/15 DiT22: Pay Attention. Focus. Concentrate.
10/10/15 DiT23: Revisiting Preseason Expectations
10/16/15 DiT24: Playing to Win the Game?
10/23/15 DiT25: Where Analytics Fail
10/31/15 DiT26: Stop Buying Low and Selling High
11/07/15 DiT27: Trash Money Records
11/14/15 DiT28: Some Statistics Are Better Than Others
11/21/15 DiT29: WYSINATI
11/26/15 DiT30: How To Buy a Championship at the Trade Deadline
12/12/15 DiT31: On Being the Right Size
12/19/15 DiT32: You’ll Never Stand in the Same Stream Twice
12/26/15 DiT33: Random is Random
09/24/16 DiT34: What Happens When You Assume?
10/01/16 DiT35: A Thought Experiment To Ruin Your Day.
10/22/16 DiT36: No One is Worth Four Firsts
11/06/16 DiT37: Age is Just a Number
09/16/17 DiT38: Many Happy Returns
09/30/17 DiT39: Value is Basic
10/14/17 DiT40: You’re Older Than You’ve Ever Been
10/28/17 DiT41: The Most Accurate Rankings. Ever.
11/11/17 DiT42: Roster Decomposition
12/09/17 DiT43: Sometimes It’s Wrong to be Right
12/23/17 DiT44: Buy Good Players
Dynasty, In Practice:
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 1 (Anticipation)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 2 (Time-saving resources)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 3 (Trent Richardson)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 4 (What makes players valuable)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 5 (Revisiting Preseason Expectations)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 6 (Valuing injured players)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 7 (Rookie picks as currency)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 8 (The aging of the RB position)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 9 (The futility of trade deadlines)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 10 (Substance abuse and suspension risk)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 11 (Rankings inertia)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 12 (Backup RBs)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 13 (Backup QBs)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 14 (Estimating championship odds)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 15 (Incidence of injury)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 16 (My favorite fantasy football story)
(2013) This Week in Dynasty: Week 17 (Don’t overreact to postseason performance)
09/05/14 DiP1: Keeping a Fantasy Journal
09/12/14 DiP2: Early-season Overperformers
09/19/14 DiP3: Valuing in the Face of Uncertainty
09/26/14 DiP4: Irrational Exuberance
10/03/14 DiP5: Revisiting Preseason Expectations
10/11/14 DiP6: Playing to Win the Game
10/18/14 DiP7: Harvin Runs a Jet Sweep
10/25/14 DiP8: Trading Like You Mean It
11/01/14 DiP9: Investing in the Future
11/08/14 DiP10: Anchoring to Reality
11/15/14 DiP11: How to Buy a Championship Before the Trade Deadline
11/22/14 DiP12: Fast Tracking Experience
11/29/14 DiP13: Eyeing Players with an Opportunity to Succeed
12/06/14 DiP14: Making Tanking Obsolete
12/13/14 DiP15: Balance Über Alles
12/20/14 DiP16: Besieged by Second Thoughts
09/05/15 DiP17: How Do Wide Receivers Age?
09/05/15 DiP18: How Do Running Backs Age?
09/06/15 DiP19: How Do Quarterbacks Age?
09/06/15 DiP20: How Do Tight Ends Age?
09/12/15 DiP21: How to Value Players in Dynasty
09/18/15 DiP22: Six Simple Rules for Trading Draft Picks
09/26/15 DiP23: Creating a Cohesive Vision for Your Roster
10/03/15 DiP24: Power Laws. (They’re Not What They Sound Like.)
10/10/15 DiP25: Predicting Stretch Performances
10/17/15 DiP26: Touchdowns Follow Yards, (but Yards Don’t Follow Back)
10/24/15 DiP27: A Trading Triptych
10/31/15 DiP28: Touchdowns Really Do Follow Yards. (Yards Still Don’t Follow Back.)
11/07/15 DiP29: Dented Aluminum Cans
11/29/15 DiP30: Coaches Are Smart
12/12/15 DiP31: Conditional Lineup Requests
12/19/15 DiP32: If Not Streaming, then What?
12/26/15 DiP33: Ageification, Youthification
Value Charts:
09/18/15 Week 2 Value Charts
09/24/15 Week 3 Value Charts
10/01/15 Week 4 Value Charts
10/09/15 Week 5 Value Charts
10/15/15 Week 6 Value Charts
10/22/15 Week 7 Value Charts
10/30/15 Week 8 Value Charts
11/06/15 Week 9 Value Charts
11/14/15 Week 10 Value Charts
11/20/15 Week 11 Value Charts
11/28/15 Week 12 Value Charts
12/05/15 Week 13 Value Charts
12/11/15 Week 14 Value Charts
12/18/15 Week 15 Value Charts
12/26/15 Week 16 Value Charts
09/18/16 Week 2 Value Charts
10/01/16 Week 4 Value Charts
10/15/16 Week 6 Value Charts
Other Dynasty:
08/09/13 Index Investing 101
08/29/13 Index Investing 201
08/30/13 Index Investing 301
08/30/13 Opening a Window
06/10/14 The Power of Knowing What You Know
08/10/14 The Opportunity Cost of Top Tight Ends
08/14/14 The Components of Player Value
08/19/14 Diversification 101
08/10/15 We’re Probably Thinking About Age the Wrong Way
Fantasy, in Theory
09/17/16 FiT1: Fantasy is Weird
10/08/16 FiT2: Revisiting Preseason Expectations
10/15/16 FiT3: Bayes and Bob
10/29/16 FiT4: Stop Fixing Your Roster
11/12/16 FiT5: Tiny Edges
09/23/17 FiT6: Newton’s Laws (and I Don’t Mean Cam)
10/07/17 FiT7: If We’re Not All Playing, Then What’s the Point?
10/21/17 FiT8: This Is Not Amari Cooper
11/04/17 FiT9: Elliott Will Play, (and That’s Probably Bad)
11/18/17 FiT10: It’s Okay Not to Know Things
12/02/17 FiT11: The Law of Power
12/16/17 FiT12: Flawed Metrics
12/30/17 FiT13: May the Best Team Win
06/09/18 FiT14: Intelligent Life and Player Upside
Learning From History
07/12/20 Learning from History: Darren Waller
Regression Alert
09/15/17 Regression Alert #1: Hunting for Outliers
09/21/17 Regression Alert #2: Be Very Wary of Yards Per Carry
09/30/17 Regression Alert #3: When Yards Per Target is Off Target
10/07/17 Regression Alert #4: Revisiting Preseason Expectations
10/14/17 Regression Alert #5: Passing Touchdowns, Too, Must Pass
10/18/17 Regression Alert #6: Touch-ups and Touchdowns
10/28/17 Regression Alert #7: Still Wary of Yards per Carry
11/04/17 Regression Alert #8: Once More Unto the Breach
11/11/17 Regression Alert #9: Picking Up the Pieces
11/18/17 Regression Alert #10: Weighted Coins
11/25/17 Regression Alert #11: Betting Against Wentz
12/02/17 Regression Alert #12: Massive Samples
12/09/17 Regression Alert #13: Special Players
12/16/17 Regression Alert #14: A Temporary Reprieve
12/23/17 Regression Alert #15: Do Quarterbacks Regress?
12/30/17 Regression Alert #16: Longer Timescales
09/12/18 Regression Alert: Week 2 (Explaining Regression)
09/20/18 Regression Alert: Week 3 (Yards Per Carry)
09/27/18 Regression Alert: Week 4 (Yard to Touchdown Ratios)
10/04/18 Regression Alert: Week 5 (Revisiting Preseason Expectations)
10/11/18 Regression Alert: Week 6 (Yards Per Target)
10/17/18 Regression Alert: Week 7 (Longer Timescales)
10/25/18 Regression Alert: Week 8 (Incoming Talent Regresses, Too)
11/02/18 Regression Alert: Week 9 (Betting against Todd Gurley)
11/07/18 Regression Alert: Week 10 (Why Care About Regression?)
11/15/18 Regression Alert: Week 11 (What Metrics Regress? / YPC Redux)
11/21/18 Regression Alert: Week 12 (Regression vs. Gambler’s Fallacy)
11/29/18 Regression Alert: Week 13 (Interception Rates)
12/06/18 Regression Alert: Week 14 (Regression is Objective, Interpretation Subjective)
12/11/18 Regression Alert: Week 15 (Regression in the Fantasy Playoffs)
12/20/18 Regression Alert: Week 16 (Regression is Canceled Due to Injuries)
12/27/18 Regression Alert: Week 17 (Final Scorecard)
09/13/19 Regression Alert: Week 2 (What is Regression?)
09/19/19 Regression Alert: Week 3 (Contra Yards Per Carry)
09/26/19 Regression Alert: Week 4 (Touchdowns Follow Yards)
10/03/19 Regression Alert: Week 5 (Revisiting Preseason Expectations)
10/10/19 Regression Alert: Week 6 (Why Quarterbacks Don’t Regress… As Much)
10/17/19 Regression Alert: Week 7 (Do You Even Watch the Games?)
10/23/19 Regression Alert: Week 8 (Tight Ends Regress, Too)
10/31/19 Regression Alert: Week 9 (The Problem with Yards Per Target and a Mea Culpa)
11/07/19 Regression Alert: Week 10 (Which Metrics Regress + YPC Redux)
11/14/19 Regression Alert: Week 11 (Incoming Talent Regresses Redux)
11/20/19 Regression Alert: Week 12 (Teams Regress, Too)
11/26/19 Regression Alert: Week 13 (Misperceptions about Interceptions)
12/04/19 Regression Alert: Week 14 (Fantasy Football Luck Regresses)
12/12/19 Regression Alert: Week 15 (No One Is Immune)
12/18/19 Regression Alert: Week 16 (The Best Team Usually Loses)
12/26/19 Regression Alert: Week 17 (Final Scorecard)
The Quarterback Streaming Project
10/14/16 Week 6 Update (Matchup Efficiency)
10/22/16 Week 7 Update (Divergence)
10/29/16 Week 8 Update (Team Identities)
11/06/16 Week 9 Update (Early Inefficiency)
11/12/16 Week 10 Update (Consistency)
11/20/16 Week 11 Update (Finishing Strong)
Rent-a-Kicker:
09/04/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 1
09/12/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 2
09/18/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 3
09/25/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 4
10/02/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 5
10/09/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 6
10/16/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 7
10/24/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 8
10/30/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 9
11/06/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 10
11/13/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 11
11/20/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 12
11/27/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 13
12/04/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 14
12/11/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 15
12/18/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 16
12/26/18 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 17
09/03/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 1
09/11/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 2
09/17/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 3
09/24/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 4
10/01/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 5
10/08/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 6
10/15/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 7
10/22/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 8
10/29/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 9
11/05/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 10
11/12/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 11
11/19/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 12
11/26/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 13
12/03/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 14
12/10/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 15
12/17/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 16
12/24/19 Rent-a-Kicker: Week 17
Miscellaneous:
2010 Processes vs. Outcomes, Jamaal Charles vs. Kevan Barlow
2010 Separating Process from Outcome
2010 Expectations, Expected Value, and the Difference Between the Two
02/06/15 History, According to the Victors
03/04/15 It’s Not the Size, (It’s How You Use It)
04/08/15 Lies, Damned Lies, and Big Receivers
06/15/15 Offense to Defend the Planet
06/15/15 Defense to Defend the Planet
06/22/15 PFRWhacks
07/24/15 Believing We’re Right is not Being Right
07/29/15 Rethinking VBD
07/31/15 A Better Way to Determine VBD Baselines
08/04/15 Calculating New Positional Baselines
08/06/15 Another Perspective on Running Back Workloads
08/07/15 How Much Does Tougher Coverage Impact a Receiver?
08/16/15 Getting the Most Out of a Footballguys Subscription
08/29/15 Unconventional Draft Strategy: The Week 1 Bye
11/07/15 DeAndre Hopkins and Receiving First Downs
11/13/15 Trivia: The Most Arizona Cardinals Statistic Ever
11/17/15 What Makes a Good Fantasy Analyst?
12/02/15 A Quarterback Wins Discussion
12/03/15 When FAAB is FUBAR, Prioritize Waivers
08/25/16 On Le’Veon Bell, Risk, and Substances of Abuse
08/31/16 Getting the Most Out of a Footballguys Subscription
08/31/16 Troubleshooting MyFBG
10/07/16 Should We Be Worried About Odell Beckham, Jr.?
10/27/16 I’m Adam Harstad and This Is How I Play
07/13/17 Skill, Luck, and ADP
08/05/17 A Quick Guide to the Lineup Dominator
08/07/17 Ezekiel Elliott and How to Value Suspended Players
08/12/17 A Quick Guide to the Waiver and Trade Dominator
08/24/17 The Problem With Expert Mock Drafts
09/18/18 Introducing the 5 Second Primer
09/18/18 Introducing the Waiver & Trade Dominator
Player Evaluations:
(2010) Chad Ochocinco vs. Hakeem Nicks
(2010) Joe Flacco vs. Matt Ryan
(2013) Player Spotlight: Doug Martin
(2013) Player Spotlight: Greg Jennings
(2013) Player Spotlight: Cam Newton
(2013) Player Spotlight: Kenny Britt
(2013) Player Spotlight: Adrian Peterson
(2013) Player Spotlight: Owen Daniels
(2013) Player Spotlight: Robert Griffin III
(2014) Player Spotlight: Le’Veon Bell
(2014) Player Spotlight: Percy Harvin
(2014) Player Spotlight: Rob Gronkowski
(2014) Player Spotlight: Andy Dalton
(2014) Player Spotlight: Reggie Bush & Joique Bell
Podcast Appearances
07/03/16 Dynasty Blueprint: Valuing Injured Players in Dynasty
07/12/16 Dynasty Tradecast: General Dynasty Trade Strategy
07/13/16 Dynasty One Podcast: Ditch the Trade Deadlines
07/18/16 Rotobahn Podcast: Analytics, Injuries, and PPR Scoring
07/20/16 Dynasty League Football: Rookie Picks as Currency
08/26/16 Fantasy Chat: Running Backs, Power Laws, and Drugs
Storify, (In Which I Collate My Twitter Rants for Future Reference):
01/26/15 Josh Gordon’s “Wasted” Talent
02/26/15 Dez Bryant Special Update
02/26/15 Receiver Size and Touchdown Rate
04/29/15 Humility is Good Policy
05/04/15 Projections vs. Heuristics
05/03/15 Livetweeting my QB Rankings Update
05/03/15 Livetweeting my RB Rankings Update
05/04/15 Livetweeting my WR Rankings Update
05/16/15 Melvin Gordon, Carlos Hyde, ADP, and the EMH
06/03/15 A Surprising Defense of Cordarrelle Patterson
06/29/15 Odds are a Measure of Our Own Ignorance
07/15/15 Identifying a Pattern in Our Tendency to Identify Patterns
08/07/15 “Flavor” Stats vs. “Quality” Stats
08/29/15 The Importance of the Playoffs
08/30/15 Loss Aversion, or Why You Aren’t Losing Enough Trades
09/04/15 Choosing What Fantasy Means to You
09/12/15 Opening Up My Historical Value Databases
11/03/15 “Injury Prone” Is Dumb, Lazy Analysis
12/08/15 Should Bad Teams Cut Expiring Assets?
12/16/15 Yes, Carson Palmer Should Win MVP
12/26/15 An Example of Using Variance in Fantasy Football
01/30/16 Does Playing Matchups Work at Quarterback? (No.)
03/12/16 Unfocused Thoughts on Martavis Bryant
08/20/16 Le’Veon Bell and Quantifying Risk
08/21/16 #RobGronkowskiStats
08/27/16 Zero RB is the Catchphrase, Not the Strategy
09/06/16 The Real Reason People Hate on K and D/ST in Fantasy
09/09/16 And Mr. Lincoln Had a Secretary Named Mr. Kennedy…
10/03/16 Odell Beckham and Policing Emotion
10/12/16 A Paean to Head-to-Head
10/16/16 No One is Worth Four Firsts
12/11/16 There Are Worse Things Than Being a Diva
12/27/16 The Long-Overdue Drops Rant
12/29/16 Why INT% is a Poor Measure of QB Skill
01/05/17 Yard to Touchdown Ratios and You
01/05/17 Brian Malone is Wrong: Trades are Where it’s at
01/18/17 My NFL Draft Cosmology (is QBs All the Way Down)
01/30/17 John Lynch is Not John Elway
07/22/17 You Probably Underrate Donovan McNabb
08/10/17 Globally Optimal is not Locally Optimal
08/16/17 Don’t Use Total Points to Value Zeke
08/18/17 Another Drops Rant
08/19/17 Stats vs. Film is About Neither Stats Nor Film
08/29/17 Do Age Curves Model Breakouts?
09/27/17 It’s Okay to Tell Me to #StickToSports
10/03/17 Russell Wilson is a Good Fantasy QB
11/12/17 The Fumble Through the End Zone Rule
01/17/18 Fitness Trackers Don’t Work
05/31/18 Start/Sit Decisions are… Complicated
06/01/19 Saquon Barkley is a Unicorn
06/18/19 Yards Per Target Doesn’t Measure Efficiency
08/14/19 Yes, Regression Can Predict Outliers
09/04/19 Veterans are Overpaid
09/18/19 “But Joe Namath!”
10/09/19 Career Yard to Touchdown Ratios
11/02/19 Sports are Political
12/23/19 A Brief History of My Terrible Trades
